Shea-Porter v. Guinta: The Republicans Strike Back

Hey there, District 1! Did you miss me? Well, it’s been a long week, as – I’m sure – we all waited with baited breath to see who would rise to the top of the Republican primaries.

            As the world slept, the ballots were counted, and late Tuesday night the second contender for New Hampshire’s District 1 was named. So, after much ado, the G.O.P. candidate who’ll be thrown into the ring with Carol Shea Porter is…..*drumroll please*…..

            Frank Guinta!

            Well, Frank, you’re running up against a triple-incumbent with a hyphenated last name. That’s a tough act to beat. But if your experience as the Mayor of Manchester – in which you beat the triple incumbent to be the youngest mayor in a hundred years – taught you anything, it’s that no incumbent is invincible.

            Indeed, with an aggressive campaign that targets the Democrat’s vulnerability and sliding popularity, Guinta could pull off the upset. This New Hampshire District 1 race is already labeled as a toss-up (due to Democrats’ weakness all over the country and a strong Conservative backlash) and is gaining national attention. However, as The New York Times reported here, Guinta only won the primaries with 32% of the vote. That’s a little close for comfort to the 28% that tied runners-up Rich Ashooh and Sean Mahoney gained. Guinta is going to have to get all the Republicans in District 1 on board with his campaign, let alone undecided voters.

            Carol, you (obviously) won the Democratic primary uncontested as the incumbent, so keep your eyes on the prize. Personally, I’m rooting for you: the more women in politics, the better, I say. That said, just check out The New York Time’s Five-Thirty-Eight model here. It’s projecting a 67% chance of a Republican win! All-in-all, you’ve got a tough battle ahead, Congresswoman Shea-Porter.

            This will certainly be an interesting race, and in the coming weeks I’ll look closer at the candidates’ respective policies and personalities. So stay tuned, blogosphere, and look out for my next post. The claws are coming out when next week I look at…attack ads!

           

             

And They're Off!

Hello blogosphere!


If you’re looking for up-to-the-minute coverage of New Hampshire’s District 1 Congressional Election, you’ve come to the right place. And -- unlike my other blogs that tend to go a couple months/years between posts -- you know this one’s going to be updated regularly, or else…I will fail this class!

So the setup is that I’m taking a Political Science writing course, and each student has to choose a Congressional race and cover it throughout the Fall semester via a blog. Unfortunately, we can only choose House races, which crushed my dream of having an anti-Linda McMahon blog, complete with the most ridiculous puns/blog titles I could imagine (McMahon – Down for the Count! McMahon KO’d in the Primaries! Oh, the possibilities…). Ah, well.

But then; I digress. Back to the important stuff: New Hampshire’s District 1! District 1 comprises the majority of New Hampshire’s South-Eastern half, and includes – among others – Carroll, Rockingham, and Strafford counties. It has been dominated for the last century by Republicans, but as always, nothing’s certain ‘till the ballots are cast and the fat lady sings....or something like that.


Here’s the political scene: Democratic incumbent Carol Shea-Porter is attempting to secure a third term with no current primary opposition, but a bevy of Republican candidates are ready in the wings to rise up and take back the district for the G.O.P. once the race gets under way. Shea-Porter is, as her website proudly states, “the first woman elected to national office in the history of the state of New Hampshire,” (shea-porter.house.gov) and could be facing quite a battle from the Republicans. Currently, there are eight Republicans in the running, including Rich Ashooh, Peter Bearse, Bob Bestani, Frank Guinta, Andrew Kohlhofer, Sean Mahoney, Richard Parent, and Kevin Rondeau. Phew!

ElectionProjection.com projects that there is a “weak G.O.P. gain” in the region, but overall media coverage of the race – from the New York Times to CQPolitcs.com (Both sources I consulted) – has stamped the race a toss-up. In other words, this should be pretty interesting! So stay tuned.

The primaries are set for September 14th, so by my next post we’ll know who Shea-Porter’s Republican adversary will be. And if you just can’t bear the excitement until then, you can check out any of these great links below that are following and tracking the race.

Until next week, stay classy New Hampshire District 1.

Sources/Links:

1. CQ Politics: http://innovation.cqpolitics.com/atlas/house2010_rr

2. NY Times: http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/house/new-hampshire/1

3. Carol Shea-Porter’s Official Website: http://www.shea-porter.house.gov/index.php?option=com_frontpage&Itemid=1