Adios, New Hampshire District 1!



It's been real, y'all.



            Well, blogosphere, we’ve come to the end of the semester, and the last post of my blog. As per the final assignment, I have to write about redistricting. However – because I don’t want to leave any of you fans of New Hampshire’s District 1 hanging – I’ll also give you an update on ole’ Frank and Carol, and tell you some of what I’ve learned about blogging this semester before I ride off into the big cyber sunset.

            First, a bit about redistricting. Obviously, all the newly elected politicians – soon to be sworn in after 2011 arrives – have their minds on redistricting (Well, reelection first, but redistricting somewhere after). Although redistricting can turn crooked with gerrymandering, it is supposed to keep districts compact and homogenized to preserve community interests. If YOU want to get into the seat of the Re-Districter (Alright, I just made that title up), though, here’s a link to the Redistricting Game: a game that – I kid you not – educates you about redistricting while letting you try the process for yourself. Happy Holidays, Poli-Sci nerds. Of course, I meant that in the best way possible.

            Well, enough of redistricting, and onto wrapping this all up. There’s not much of an epilogue to the saga of Frank-and-Carol. Soon to be Ex-Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter has yet (at least, when I posted this) to update her website to thank her supporters, congratulate her opponent, and/or offer some closing comments on her incumbency. I imagined that she would’ve done something to that effect by now, but I suppose her loss to Guinta is still stinging a bit. Guinta, on the other hand is inviting everyone to his Christmas party! Party at the Guinta’s! Victory is sweet I suppose. Though I thought that Shea-Porter had a good chance to win reelection when I began this blog, in retrospect I guess she was fighting a losing battle all along.

            Despite the not-so-thrilling ending to the District 1 race, I have learned quite a bit about blogging over the semester. I learned that to make a blog successful, you not only need to keep up with it consistently, but that you also need to have fun with your blog – even if it’s on a Congressional Race in a tiny corner of New Hampshire.

            Well, that’s it I suppose….but I should stop here before we all get too emotional. To everyone – from my class and elsewhere (whoever the heck you are) – who’s read this blog this semester; thanks for tuning in. And good luck to both Carol Shea-Porter and Frank Guinta as you two enter a new phase in your political careers. Who knows…maybe in a few years we’ll have Shea-Porter and Guinta Round Two. Until then…stay classy, District 1!

Change, Lattes, and Realignment

Sweet, sweet politics.

            Change is good. Whether it’s breaking out of my Venti-Americano-Steamed-Soy shell at Starbucks to get an Eggnog latte, feng shui-ing my living room, or deciding to bike to school instead of paying my tuition in parking, change is good for all of us. Our country has just gone through some big changes in the last few weeks with the Midterm Elections, and it is up to political pundits, analysts, and students like me to interpret what changes these changes will bring. Fun times!

            So in this entry, I’m going to try and decide whether we’re heading towards a realignment in the next presidential election based on the recent midterms. First I’ll give the argument for why we’re heading for a realignment, and then counter it…and you’ll just have to read on to see where my opinion lies!

            I can see how some people (Like, for example, rabid Tea Party members) might say we are heading for a realignment soon. With opposition to Obama mounting and becoming much fervent, it’s easy to see why someone might think that the next election will likely bring on a  realignment. After all, realignments occur (among many other signals or realignments and factors) during a time of heightened political interest, usually with intense party turmoil, and involve national issues with a desire for policy change. Certainly, it seems that our nation is heading towards all of these factors, and – unless public opinion of Obama changes in the next two years – it is possible we might have a realignment.

2012: The ultimate realignment.

            Even so, I’m not sure that the next presidential election is going to be Obama’s proverbial walk to the guillotine, as some of his opposition might suggest. While some may think the upcoming election is going to be a major realignment (for the reasons I just went over), I’m not so sure. I think that the 2008 Presidential election was a realignment, and – since realignments generally take a few years/incumbencies to generate another one – it’s unlikely that we’re going to have one in the 2012 election, no matter what Obama’s opposition has to say. That is, of course, if any of us are around to see the election of 2012….but that’s another story.

            Well, only time will tell whether we’re going to go through a realignment in the next few years. Goodness knows I’m not a very good fortune teller; and the most predicting I dabble in is my horoscope. Stay tuned next week for my send-off blog post on redistricting!

Free Frosties, Obama's Reagan Initiative, and the Election of 1800: My Thoughts after Election Day



No, I don't hate Republicans by any means, but I think the fervor building up for the newest Harry Potter movie is getting to me.



            Well, I voted! Did you?

            I got myself a nifty little sticker, and a free t-shirt courtesy of my college. A few years ago, they gave us coupons for a free Frosty milkshake at Wendy’s, but hey, these are hard economic times for us all. No Frosty for me.

            But, I got a sticker and t-shirt! Fun times. Unfortunately, though, those were the only pluses in a day full of minuses: minuses, that is, for the Democrats. The Dems lost sixty seats in the House and six seats in the Senate, which means they’ve held onto the latter but lost control of the former. Certainly, Election Day didn’t ring out the Doomsday bells for the Democratic Party the way many pundits predicted it would, but – as they did lose the House – it means that the Dems and President Obama are in for one Congress-sized headache. The Republican Party is out for blood, and it will be interesting to see how Obama functions after this loss. In fact, I found a fascinating article from Lou Cannon at Politics Daily. It discusses how Obama can emulate Ronald Reagan’s reelection after he did miserably in his midterms. I encourage you to read it; the full article can be found here.

            And, alas, as the polls had predicted for quite some time, Carol did miserably in the election, and fell to Frank Guinta. She only got 42.7% of the vote, while Guinta won with 53.8%. The full election results for New Hampshire’s District 1 – as well as the entire country – can be found here on the New York Time’s website. Although it was glaringly obvious for some time that Guinta would win, I was still hoping that Shea-Porter would hold onto the seat for reasons I explained in my last post.

            Of course, since the election, one can see an obvious difference in the way each candidate feels about the results by looking at how quickly they have updated their websites; if at all. Naturally, Guinta was quick to put an obligatory statement on his website thanking voters and promising to fulfill the promises he made during the campaign. In stark contrast to Guinta’s jubilations (as of when I wrote this post) Carol hasn’t updated her campaign website or her official Congressional website since the election (not even a dejected Tweet, Carol?). In fact, the way that you look at the websites now, it’s like the election never even happened and Carol’s still a Congresswoman again! Hooray! Maybe that’s the way she wants it.

            Well, I think that’s all I have the energy to cover. Let’s face it: it had been an exhausting election cycle. Exhausting, vicious, stressful…and I’m not even a candidate! But I might have the perfect anecdote for all this. If you’re any kind of history buff, politics buff, or just appreciate a good laugh, then watch this clip. It lampoons how “dirty” this 2010 election cycle was supposed to be with the notoriously nasty election of 1800 between John Adams and Thomas Jefferson. Be warned: every ridiculous quote and accusation was really used! Enjoy.

The Final Countdown

            November 2^nd is less than a week away, people! For Frank and Carol, it’s the final countdown…a phrase that – let’s face it – always makes me think of G.O.B. Bluth from “Arrested Development.”

Politics are merely illusions, people! ILLUSIONS!

            But that’s another show.

            Well, we’ve had a major last-minute change in New Hampshire, blogosphere. The New York Times has officially changed District 1 from the happy yellow shade of a “Toss-up” district to the ambiguous pink of “leaning Republican.” Apparently, the Five-Thirty-Eight Model has given him an 89.7% chance of winning. Wait, hold that thought: I just refreshed the page and he now has a 90% chance of winning. In the two seconds since I wrote that last sentence, Frank Guinta went up .3%. Fellow Democrats, feel free to cry out in despair: “NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!”

            How has this happened? And why? Well, I’ll tell you why, and it’s gonna involve putting my two cents into the pot. After all – after covering this race for almost two months now – I feel that it’s only appropriate to – especially right before the election – contribute a bit of my personal opinion. So, in this post, I’m going to offer the two major reasons why I think that this shift towards Guinta has occurred.

            First of all, I think that Guinta’s projected success is not a true reflection of either his merits or Shea-Porter’s defects, but rather, is a reflection of the current political zeitgeist that has taken our country by storm. That is, a political zeitgeist that promotes extreme partisanship and intolerance, and the exact problem that Jon Stewart’s “Rally to Restore Sanity”  is attempting to highlight. This partisanship is not only polarizing, but ultimately harmful to the political process.

            Next, as gross gender inequalities continue to be prolific and rampant throughout our society, I think it’s very difficult for women to enter – and stay – in politics. It’s a near criminal reality, but one that female candidates must contend with every election cycle. Despite my personal political leanings, I certainly appreciate the efforts of all female candidates, from the annoying (*cough* Sarah Palin), to the possibly insane (*cough* Christine O’Donnell *cough cough*), as the odds are truly stacked against them.

            Well, that’s my little rant for today. I hope I didn’t scare you away with my quasi op-ed, but rather, gave you some points to consider before heading into the polls. I’ll keep my fingers crossed for Carol in next week’s polls, but it’s not looking good.

A Time of Quiet Contemplation Before the Bloody Melee of Election Day

            I’m feeling contemplative this week, blogosphere. Whether it’s the peaceful chill in the fall air, or the fact that my brain has been wiped clean and numbed by the never-ending gamut of attack ads, I’m in the mood for looking back to review what we’ve covered so far, what has changed, and what has yet to come.



Think of wide, open spaces. No more political ads, just wide. Open. Spaces.



So, before the madness of the next two weeks begins, this post is going to do what the Guinta and Shea-Porter camps are probably doing as we speak: evaluating their campaigns and retooling it for the last leg of the race.

            Let’s see: we’ve talked about the primaries, attack ads, the importance of money, and policy positions. Certainly, advertising and money seem to take precedence over actual issues in campaigns these days, as discussing specific issues can alienate voters. Guinta and Shea-Porter have definitely stuck to this model, pumping hundreds of thousands of dollars into endless ads and rallies that promote their candidate, but not much else.

            As far as where the race is right now, it’s – as I mentioned in the beginning – at the critical point where the campaigns need to carefully examine what is working for them, what isn’t, and how to streamline their major campaign messages. Both of the candidates will probably be creating a few final, powerful slogans to get their message through to voters right before Election Day. Simplest messages can absolutely be powerful, especially if it sticks in voters’ minds and speaks to some deep dissatisfaction with the incumbent and/or national political agenda.

            I’m not sure what’s to come, but I'm guessing that Guinta’s increasing lead in the polls does not bode well for Shea-Porter. Additionally, from what I have seen on Guinta’s versus Shea-Porter’s websites, it seems that Guinta is running a much more aggressive ad campaign as opposed to Shea-Porter. If he manages to convert enough voters with his advertising, it could spell disaster for Shea-Porter.

            Next week we’re gonna take a look at the final countdown before Election Day, and see if any exciting last minute changes take place! Keep holding your breath, District 1, because I think this is gonna be close!

Political Babble, Revisited

Change of plan, blogosphere. So I know that last week I said we'd be discussing the candidates' respective policy positions, but I'm going to take the wheel and make a very slight detour. Instead of doing a straight analysis of their policy, I'm going to bring in an old theme -- attack ads -- to help me do so. In this entry, we're going to look at how one of Democrat Shea-Porter and Republican Guinta's biggest policy positions are portrayed in another of their ads. Rather than analyzing the style and effectiveness of the ads themselves, this week we're going to look at the effectiveness of the policy position discussed in the ads. This way, we've covered both policy and ads in one fell swoop!

First, let's examine one of Shea-Porter's biggest selling points that came up when I last discussed attack ads: her dedication to veterans' care. Veterans' care is a strategic issue to rally for, as it targets not only older voters -- who are more likely to vote than younger ones -- but it also pulls in Republican voters too, as her ad suggests. Indeed, as she tries to show in her ad, her care for veterans shows her dedication and trustworthiness as a candidate, and raises her above the divides of partisan politics. Carol is hoping to unite voters over a specific -- but generally non-divisive -- issue, which can be very effective for a campaign. Veterans' care is an issue that both parties rally for, is a national issue, and, moreso, is a human issue; that is, it inspires empathy for the veterans, and obliges voters to cast their ballot for candidates that support this issue. Therefore, she is roping in a wide range of voters by being the champion of veterans' care, which will certainly come in handy on a certain Tuesday in November.

Now so far, Guinta hasn't so much stuck to a set of individual policy points, but rather is running under a banner of general fiscal responsibility. Additionally, it's a banner that -- in a strategy being utilized by Republicans nationwide -- is demonizing the spending of the federal government. Certainly, there's ample discord in the country, but even so, Guinta's message remains a little vague. In a recent ad,  Guinta's main points seem to be that "government is too big," "there's too much spending," and "small businesses are being affected": all very broad, non-specific statements. That said, with Guinta still being projected to win, there is clearly value in such an ambiguous message. Instead of specific issues that can alienate voters, Guinta has chosen to feature some nebulous gripes that feed off of the dismal economic climate, and has used the age-old scapegoat of the United States Federal Government (And of course, by extension, his opponent Carol Shea-Porter) to blame for these problems. It is easy for voters to get behind such a broad set of issues, and sometimes, these messages can be very motivating for voters to cast their ballot.

Next week....I haven't decided what to talk about yet! I know, I know, the suspense is gonna kill you, but you're just gonna have to sit tight. It'll be a wildcard but -- as many of the races this year have been unpredictable, and we are drawing ever closer to Election Day -- I'm sure there will be something new and exciting in District 1 to talk about.

$$$ Money, Money, Money $$$

I tell ya, these days, you can’t do much without money. Why, just to get to class with my printed assignments and coffee, I’ve already had to pay for the gas in my car, ink for my printer, and coffee at Starbucks. But though I may complain about the overpriced Americanos that fuel my caffeine addiction, it is nothing in comparison to the massive sums of money pumped into political campaigns.

            So this week, I’ve decided to take a look at our candidate’s finances. With less than a month to go before Election Day, it is time for both Democrat Shea-Porter and Republican Guinta to put all the money they have into advertisements and rallies to persuade voters. Studies have suggested that the last two weeks of a campaign are when the majority of voters actually pay attention, so we are certainly nearing the critical stage of New Hampshire’s District One Race. I’ve turned to the New York Time’s coverage of the race to take a look at the expenses so far.

            Shea-Porter has raised at least $960,150 as of August, and has probably eclipsed the million dollar mark since then. With Election Projection still predicting a Guinta victory as Election Day draws near, Shea-Porter is going to have to spend her money on defending her previous achievements and decisions in Congress. She certainly has enough cash on hand to do so, but unless she uses this money to take her campaign to the next level, she may lose her seat.

            On the other hand, Guinta doesn’t have to defend any of his previous actions, rather he only needs to focus his money and advertising into taking down Shea-Porter. So far, Guinta has raised about $700,000, but has spent more than a million, leaving him with much less cash on hand than Shea-Porter. Guinta needs to watch his spending if he’s going to survive the marathon and not just the sprint. If he is smart about his spending and continues to successfully fundraise – as well as maintaining his aggressive campaign – Guinta may win.

            Certainly, in these last few weeks, the spending is bound to increase tenfold as both candidates will bombard the District with flyers, tv and radio ads, and rallies. And though money can’t buy you an election, it certainly comes close to doing so. So come back next week, as we’re going to take a closer look at Carol and Frank’s policy positions, and how those line up with the constituents of New Hampshire District 1. Until then, keep your eyes on the race, and keep out of the rain!

The Gloves Come Off: Attack Ads

So this week we’re taking a look at Carol and Frank’s respective attack ads. When I told my roommate about the subject of my new blog entry, she then launched into a five-minute speech about how I could talk about the people who strap cameras to them and videotape what they do at night to observe their territoriality and mating habits. Apparently she thought I had said “attack cats.”

            Pictured: Attack cat

            But as usual, I digress. We’re here to talk about attack ads: from daisies to bears to hope, attack ads have been a powerful tool for candidates to use and abuse since the advent of television. Love ‘em or hate ‘em, millions of dollars are pumped into them each election cycle, and they barrage our televisions mercilessly. So, let’s see how they’re being used in the New Hampshire District 1 race.

            Take a moment to watch the ad I chose from Congresswoman Shea-Porter’s campaign. As the incumbent, Shea-Porter can play much more defense than offense, which is reflected in this ad. She’s keeping it issue-based here, discussing veterans' care and bringing in her mom for a domestic touch. Heck, she doesn’t even mention “her opponent,” which is probably part of her larger strategy. Carol’s trying to show she’s focused and confident, and brought in the old lady to soften the edge.

            Now, here’s Frank Guinta’s ad. The obvious contrast here is that Frank is on the offensive, having to work doubly hard to take the reigning incumbent down. The slightly demented Pelosi/Shea-Porter animation is an interesting visual, trying to show how Shea-Porter is toeing the party line like a Democratic drone. He criticizes Shea-Porter, then presents his campaign message and policy initiative as the better choice for voters. Obviously, it’s more effective to take your opponent down before building yourself up, and Guinta is definitely following that tried-and-true blueprint.

           And those are thoughts for the week, attack cats and all. Before I go, though, Frank Guinta and Congressman Shea-Porter have made slight changes to their campaign websites, so the new link for Guinta’s website is here and Shea-Porter’s is here. Next week we’re going to discuss the thing that makes the world – and political campaigns – go ‘round: money, money, money. So come back same time next week for a discussion of how the big green stuff is affecting New Hampshire’s District 1 race.

Shea-Porter v. Guinta: The Republicans Strike Back

Hey there, District 1! Did you miss me? Well, it’s been a long week, as – I’m sure – we all waited with baited breath to see who would rise to the top of the Republican primaries.

            As the world slept, the ballots were counted, and late Tuesday night the second contender for New Hampshire’s District 1 was named. So, after much ado, the G.O.P. candidate who’ll be thrown into the ring with Carol Shea Porter is…..*drumroll please*…..

            Frank Guinta!

            Well, Frank, you’re running up against a triple-incumbent with a hyphenated last name. That’s a tough act to beat. But if your experience as the Mayor of Manchester – in which you beat the triple incumbent to be the youngest mayor in a hundred years – taught you anything, it’s that no incumbent is invincible.

            Indeed, with an aggressive campaign that targets the Democrat’s vulnerability and sliding popularity, Guinta could pull off the upset. This New Hampshire District 1 race is already labeled as a toss-up (due to Democrats’ weakness all over the country and a strong Conservative backlash) and is gaining national attention. However, as The New York Times reported here, Guinta only won the primaries with 32% of the vote. That’s a little close for comfort to the 28% that tied runners-up Rich Ashooh and Sean Mahoney gained. Guinta is going to have to get all the Republicans in District 1 on board with his campaign, let alone undecided voters.

            Carol, you (obviously) won the Democratic primary uncontested as the incumbent, so keep your eyes on the prize. Personally, I’m rooting for you: the more women in politics, the better, I say. That said, just check out The New York Time’s Five-Thirty-Eight model here. It’s projecting a 67% chance of a Republican win! All-in-all, you’ve got a tough battle ahead, Congresswoman Shea-Porter.

            This will certainly be an interesting race, and in the coming weeks I’ll look closer at the candidates’ respective policies and personalities. So stay tuned, blogosphere, and look out for my next post. The claws are coming out when next week I look at…attack ads!

           

             

And They're Off!

Hello blogosphere!


If you’re looking for up-to-the-minute coverage of New Hampshire’s District 1 Congressional Election, you’ve come to the right place. And -- unlike my other blogs that tend to go a couple months/years between posts -- you know this one’s going to be updated regularly, or else…I will fail this class!

So the setup is that I’m taking a Political Science writing course, and each student has to choose a Congressional race and cover it throughout the Fall semester via a blog. Unfortunately, we can only choose House races, which crushed my dream of having an anti-Linda McMahon blog, complete with the most ridiculous puns/blog titles I could imagine (McMahon – Down for the Count! McMahon KO’d in the Primaries! Oh, the possibilities…). Ah, well.

But then; I digress. Back to the important stuff: New Hampshire’s District 1! District 1 comprises the majority of New Hampshire’s South-Eastern half, and includes – among others – Carroll, Rockingham, and Strafford counties. It has been dominated for the last century by Republicans, but as always, nothing’s certain ‘till the ballots are cast and the fat lady sings....or something like that.


Here’s the political scene: Democratic incumbent Carol Shea-Porter is attempting to secure a third term with no current primary opposition, but a bevy of Republican candidates are ready in the wings to rise up and take back the district for the G.O.P. once the race gets under way. Shea-Porter is, as her website proudly states, “the first woman elected to national office in the history of the state of New Hampshire,” (shea-porter.house.gov) and could be facing quite a battle from the Republicans. Currently, there are eight Republicans in the running, including Rich Ashooh, Peter Bearse, Bob Bestani, Frank Guinta, Andrew Kohlhofer, Sean Mahoney, Richard Parent, and Kevin Rondeau. Phew!

ElectionProjection.com projects that there is a “weak G.O.P. gain” in the region, but overall media coverage of the race – from the New York Times to CQPolitcs.com (Both sources I consulted) – has stamped the race a toss-up. In other words, this should be pretty interesting! So stay tuned.

The primaries are set for September 14th, so by my next post we’ll know who Shea-Porter’s Republican adversary will be. And if you just can’t bear the excitement until then, you can check out any of these great links below that are following and tracking the race.

Until next week, stay classy New Hampshire District 1.

Sources/Links:

1. CQ Politics: http://innovation.cqpolitics.com/atlas/house2010_rr

2. NY Times: http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/house/new-hampshire/1

3. Carol Shea-Porter’s Official Website: http://www.shea-porter.house.gov/index.php?option=com_frontpage&Itemid=1