Hey there, District 1! Did you miss me? Well, it’s been a long week, as – I’m sure – we all waited with baited breath to see who would rise to the top of the Republican primaries.
As the world slept, the ballots were counted, and late Tuesday night the second contender for New Hampshire’s District 1 was named. So, after much ado, the G.O.P. candidate who’ll be thrown into the ring with Carol Shea Porter is…..*drumroll please*…..
Frank Guinta!
Well, Frank, you’re running up against a triple-incumbent with a hyphenated last name. That’s a tough act to beat. But if your experience as the Mayor of Manchester – in which you beat the triple incumbent to be the youngest mayor in a hundred years – taught you anything, it’s that no incumbent is invincible.
Indeed, with an aggressive campaign that targets the Democrat’s vulnerability and sliding popularity, Guinta could pull off the upset. This New Hampshire District 1 race is already labeled as a toss-up (due to Democrats’ weakness all over the country and a strong Conservative backlash) and is gaining national attention. However, as The New York Times reported here, Guinta only won the primaries with 32% of the vote. That’s a little close for comfort to the 28% that tied runners-up Rich Ashooh and Sean Mahoney gained. Guinta is going to have to get all the Republicans in District 1 on board with his campaign, let alone undecided voters.
Carol, you (obviously) won the Democratic primary uncontested as the incumbent, so keep your eyes on the prize. Personally, I’m rooting for you: the more women in politics, the better, I say. That said, just check out The New York Time’s Five-Thirty-Eight model here. It’s projecting a 67% chance of a Republican win! All-in-all, you’ve got a tough battle ahead, Congresswoman Shea-Porter.
This will certainly be an interesting race, and in the coming weeks I’ll look closer at the candidates’ respective policies and personalities. So stay tuned, blogosphere, and look out for my next post. The claws are coming out when next week I look at…attack ads!
Haha, I love the boxing metaphor, especially the Photoshopped picture! I'm glad you brought in the FiveThirtyEight prediction, I love that blog. There's a lot of factors that go into the projections for House seats, and I would really like to know which ones are making it seem likely that Guinta will unseat the incumbent Shea-Porter.
ReplyDeleteI think that Shea-Porter has an enormous advantage over Guinta. Not only did she not have any opponents in the primary but she has major name recognition at her advantage. The people in this district know the name and most voters know what to expect from the name. Considering the reality that those who cast votes in midterm elections are usually more politically knowledgeable. Not as many people vote in these elections as they do in Presidential elections. Therefore, the naive voter will not work to the advantage of newcomer, Guinta simply because most of them will not even vote.
ReplyDeleteI'm looking forward to watching as Guinta attempts to get republicans on his campaign wagon that haven't supported him from the beginning. Carl Shea-Porter seems to already have a strong support group so she has more time and energy to aim at convincing undecided voters to keep her in office. Guinta will need to really get creative in gaining support from both republicans and independents in order to take on Shea- Porter.
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