Change, Lattes, and Realignment

Sweet, sweet politics.

            Change is good. Whether it’s breaking out of my Venti-Americano-Steamed-Soy shell at Starbucks to get an Eggnog latte, feng shui-ing my living room, or deciding to bike to school instead of paying my tuition in parking, change is good for all of us. Our country has just gone through some big changes in the last few weeks with the Midterm Elections, and it is up to political pundits, analysts, and students like me to interpret what changes these changes will bring. Fun times!

            So in this entry, I’m going to try and decide whether we’re heading towards a realignment in the next presidential election based on the recent midterms. First I’ll give the argument for why we’re heading for a realignment, and then counter it…and you’ll just have to read on to see where my opinion lies!

            I can see how some people (Like, for example, rabid Tea Party members) might say we are heading for a realignment soon. With opposition to Obama mounting and becoming much fervent, it’s easy to see why someone might think that the next election will likely bring on a  realignment. After all, realignments occur (among many other signals or realignments and factors) during a time of heightened political interest, usually with intense party turmoil, and involve national issues with a desire for policy change. Certainly, it seems that our nation is heading towards all of these factors, and – unless public opinion of Obama changes in the next two years – it is possible we might have a realignment.

2012: The ultimate realignment.

            Even so, I’m not sure that the next presidential election is going to be Obama’s proverbial walk to the guillotine, as some of his opposition might suggest. While some may think the upcoming election is going to be a major realignment (for the reasons I just went over), I’m not so sure. I think that the 2008 Presidential election was a realignment, and – since realignments generally take a few years/incumbencies to generate another one – it’s unlikely that we’re going to have one in the 2012 election, no matter what Obama’s opposition has to say. That is, of course, if any of us are around to see the election of 2012….but that’s another story.

            Well, only time will tell whether we’re going to go through a realignment in the next few years. Goodness knows I’m not a very good fortune teller; and the most predicting I dabble in is my horoscope. Stay tuned next week for my send-off blog post on redistricting!